Wednesday Night #2314

FIFA 2026 World Cup Fever is over leaving relatively good memories for almost all, and a greatly expanded fan base in North America. Donald Trump could not, of course resist inserting himself into Spain’s victory lap and consequently had to be firmly ushered off stage – how can he not realize how infantile such actions are?

Trade & Tariffs
Canada-U.S.
When Trump announced that he blames Canada for wildfire smoke, and would add the cost to tariffs, it set off a much wider debate about forest  and wildfire management – can Canada control the frequency or size of the fires, etc. The NYT came to Canada’s defense: Most Forest Fires in Canada Are Simply Impossible to Put Out
Half of Canada’s wildfires are in remote areas with no road access. Impossible to fight, they are often left to burn., but there remain many questions about response time and evacuations …
Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, citing disputes over autos, alcohol and cheese
The Economist examines Trump’s tariff mania in The tariffs that just won’t die (See long reads)
Meantime
No cross-border ceremony for Gordie Howe bridge in light of U.S. trade threats: minister
For now “The Canada-Michigan Crossing Agreement and the recently negotiated parallel Agreement in Principle between Canada and the United States remain unchanged,” the emailed statement said.” But who can tell what Trump may do between now and then.
Labrador doesn’t belong to Quebec
Andrew Caddell writes in The Hill Times
“In the news media, the deep summer is known as the “silly season” because there is normally not much hard news, so obscure stories make headlines. This year, there’s no lack of news: smoky cities, wildfires, federal government purchases, and the perpetual shadow of United States President Donald Trump.
However, in the spirit of the “silly season,” the Parti Québécois is questioning the ownership of Labrador. The average Canadian presumes the matter is settled as the name of our newest province is Newfoundland AND Labrador. However, in late June, the PQ published the latest chapters of its 524-page Livre Bleu (Blue Book) on its plans for an independent Quebec, which include Labrador.”

Global economy
Global Economy in the Crosscurrents of War and Technology
Thank you, John Evdokias, for highlighting the IMF World Economic Outlook Update (July 2026) which projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 as AI-related investment offsets economic drag from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Risks include energy-price volatility, trade fragmentation, and potential supply-chain disruptions. (See Long reads for full reportIn another note, John addresses the risk environment around the world’s principal maritime choke points which has deteriorated materially. The Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of reduced vessel activity amid renewed regional conflict, while threats to the Bab el-Mandeb corridor have increased concern regarding Red Sea and Suez Canal access. …the key scenario is no longer a single-node disruption. It is simultaneous stress
affecting the Persian Gulf energy complex and the Red Sea / Suez transit system. That dual-node scenario would
likely transmit through energy price volatility, higher freight and insurance costs, longer routing times, supply-chain
delay, defence spending demand and wider geopolitical risk premiums.

Britain has a new PM and Jeremy Kinsman calls it A Very British Coup, or He Who Dares, Wins Our question – will Britain un-Brexit?

India
C Uday Bhaskar writes
A Cry of Anguish; a Sad Day for Democracy, but a Glimmer of Hope
India’s Cockroach party leads thousands of youth in protest to parliament
Demonstrators in the Indian capital have marched to parliament as they demand the sacking of the country’s education minister. The youth-led Cockroach movement, started as a satirical youth platform, but has morphed into something larger. Protesters are more galvanised after a hunger-striking social activist was forcibly moved to hospital, against his will.
Monday, July 20, 2026 will be long remembered as a black day for Indian democracy. The images on social media being shared from Jantar Mantar in the national capital were hard to watch: young students, some of them girls, being pushed, dragged and hit with lathis (long bamboo sticks) by the Delhi Police and paramilitary forces. The security forces were ordered to prevent the protesters from proceeding on a peaceful march to Parliament.
As a septuagenarian who grew up in a very different and inclusive India, there is a deep sadness in seeing the State – the constitutional guardian, turn on its own citizen like a predator. And yet, paradoxically, there was also a sliver of hope. Because Jantar Mantar – the site of an 18th century observatory and an iconic protest site – had come alive after years, symbolizing the right of aggrieved citizens to engage in peaceful protest.

Putin’s war & Ukraine
Despite the turmoil surrounding the changes in Ukraine’s military leadership, most observers believe that Ukraine has the upper hand thanks to clever drone use strategy. Former Swedish PM, Carl Bildt cautions that Putin Likes His Worst Option in Ukraine –Faced with a quagmire in eastern Ukraine and escalating Ukrainian attacks within Russia, Vladimir Putin must either seek a ceasefire or pursue some form of escalation. With all signs pointing to him embracing the latter alternative, the situation could worsen dramatically for everyone, but especially for him.

Israel, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank
As Israel continues its ruthless policies in the West Bank and Gaza, a new Hamas leader has been elected. (See long reads/videos for How will Khalil al-Hayya’s leadership shape Hamas?)

AI, Society & Technology
Rampant AI
As we have noted previously, there is increasing backlash regarding the seemingly unstoppable development of AI and its application to every aspect of our lives, education and, work and leisure.  (See Paul Krugman: Why Does Everyone Hate AI?)
The news that OpenAI blamed a hacking event on its AI models going rogue should give pause for thought. “OpenAI said Tuesday two of its most capable AI models were responsible for the cyberattack targeting AI startup Hugging Face.” – Science fiction brought to life. The Economist is taking the matter seriously: Why the OpenAI escape is the most worrying AI mishap yet –Containing the technology is getting harder

Varia
The beginning of a happy ending
Marineland belugas from Ontario greeted by emotional U.S. aquarium staff after ‘unprecedented rescue’
1st wave of relocations for 30 belugas from closed Niagara Falls park began Monday

Successful author Louise Penny lends her influence to the development of Lac Brome as the very first Dementia Friendly Community in Canada.

Long reads

IMF Full Report PDF

The tariffs that just won’t die
Donald Trump is adept at reviving levies. Achieving their goals is harder

I’m a Scholar of Genocide. We’re Entering a Terrifying New Era.
… If the plans that are currently being elaborated for Gaza go forward, genocide may come to be seen by some nations as the legitimate and lucrative extension of politics by other means …

How will Khalil al-Hayya’s leadership shape Hamas?
Al-Hayya takes control as Hamas comes under increasing pressure to cede power – and as more than two million Palestinians are still enduring near-daily Israeli attacks, despite a formal ceasefire.

Trump’s campaign of retribution: –At least 470 targets and counting
Reuters documented at least 470 targets of retribution under Trump’s leadership – from federal employees and prosecutors to universities and media outlets. The list illuminates the sweeping effort by the president and his administration to punish dissent and reshape the government