Wednesday Night #2247

A tale of two Peters
For the past several months, Wednesday Night’s favorite automotive expert, Peter Frise, has held court in the media. This week, our favorite macroeconomic expert, Peter Berezin, is the subject of NYT’s Michelle Goldberg’s Why Did So Many People Delude Themselves About Trump? “One Wall Street veteran, however, understood the risk an unleashed Trump posed to the economy. After Trump’s victory in November, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research,…estimated that the chance of a recession had climbed to 75 percent. …”

In contrast, a third Peter much in the news these days, is the eccentric economist/trade expert, Peter Navarro. Trump Tariff Adviser Peter Navarro Invented His Very Own, Fictional Economics Expert
The White House trade guru has often cited “Ron Vara”—an anagram of his own last name. That might explain a lot.

If you were hiding under a rock this week (and why wouldn’t you?) Heather Cox Richardson gives an excellent summary of the major events arising from Trump’s Tariffs up to Sunday.
April 6, 2025 (Sunday) -Letters from an American
After President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 wiped $5 trillion dollars from the stock market, the Republican Party is scrambling.
Farmers, who were a part of Trump’s base (our emphasis), are “struck and shocked” by the tariffs, the president of the South Dakota Farmers Union told Lauren Scott of CBC News, saying they will have a “devastating effect.” Rob Copeland, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell of the New York Times report that Wall Street leaders who backed Trump are now criticizing him publicly, with one calling for someone to stop him. The size of yesterday’s peaceful protests around the country, less than 100 days into Trump’s term when he should be enjoying a honeymoon, demonstrated growing fury at the administration’s actions.
When Trump administration officials Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett appeared on this morning’s Sunday shows, their attempts to reassure Americans and deflect concerns also sounded out of touch. …
Fact check: are US tariffs really bringing in $2bn a day as Trump claims?
US president may have used some hypothetical maths but chances are slim that such sums [could be] raised

BUT WAIT! Trade Whiplash. The fat lady (or man in the White House) is apparently not even half way through the aria.
Trump hits pause on trade war
China tariffs will go up to 125 percent while other countries get a 90-day reprieve
President Donald Trump reversed course in the global trade war he launched just a week ago, announcing in a social media post a 90-day pause on new tariffs against every country but China.
That came just hours after Trump urged the country to “BE COOL” in another post that came amid continued worldwide chaos, with China and the European Union hitting back and the financial fallout spreading to bond markets.
Trump Shock Pushes US and China Toward Decoupling Cliff Edge
The US and China are in a full-blown trade war, with tariffs and retaliatory measures causing a significant impact on global trade and economies.
The Trump tariff declaration(s) and subsequent fallout has given rise to many thoughtful analyses, countered by the much unloved (by us) Kevin O’Leary on tariffs: China doesn’t play by the rules -he even manages to invent a new word ‘reciprocality’-
But also some marvelous memes (penguins dominate) and the perfect description of Karoline Leavitt
“— the MAGA protégé with the venom of a Bond villain and the charm of an unpaid parking ticket”

AND WAIT AGAIN!
Really?
Trump administration appeals court decision ordering AP journalists back into White House events
The Trump administration said Wednesday it would appeal a federal court decision that ordered it to re-admit Associated Press journalists to White House events on First Amendment grounds
AP wins reinstatement to White House events after judge rules government can’t bar its journalists remember that the fight was over AP’s refusal to change the traditional usage to Gulf of Americas…

Closer to the Edge illustrates some of the massive Hands Off! movement demonstrations of April 5th.
From the industrial heartlands of Ohio to the vibrant streets of New York, from the plains of Oklahoma to the coastal towns of California, people are uniting around the same cause: Hands off our rights, our services, and our democracy. What began as protest signs and chants has now become a political storm — one that’s rising fast and gathering momentum.
Photos: See demonstrators around the country rally in ‘Hands Off!’ protests
Hands Off! demonstrations were held across the country to protest the actions of President Trump and his billionaire advisor Elon Musk.
The Hands Off! movement protested a wide range of activities from the Trump administration, from cuts and layoffs to federal departments, to mass deportations.

What’s with Ted Cruz?
Ted Cruz warns of midterm ‘bloodbath’ if Trump tariffs cause a recession
Texas senator’s comments another sign of Republican unease over ‘reciprocal tariffs’ and stock market plunge
Is it possible we should be applauding/encouraging Elon Musk who reportedly made several pushes for Trump to back off global tariffs surge. In recent days, he has been engaged in verbal warfare with Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser (Third Peter cited above) The feud between the two men escalated after Trump appeared to side with Musk and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in agreeing to negotiate with foreign leaders over tariffs.
We are not sure how Navarro is feeling about tariffs this evening.

Dare we seize on this glimmer of hope?
Growing opposition from House conservatives threatens to derail Trump’s agenda
Wednesday evening’s vote on the Senate-approved budget resolution, which would unlock the reconciliation process that Republicans are looking to use to pass tax cuts, border funding and energy policy. The Speaker is actively urging his ranks to fall in line, and the White House has begun making calls to House Republicans, a source told The Hill.
But a mounting swell of resistance among fiscal hawks who want commitments on large spending cuts upfront is putting that plan in jeopardy.
7 GOP senators sign on to bill to check Trump’s trade authority

Byron Haskins, what’s up with Governor Whitmer Attacks Trump’s Tariffs, but Avoids Attacking Trump
At an event in Washington, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan struck a more measured tone on the president’s trade war than other Democrats seen as possible 2028 contenders. She included encouraging anecdotes about a meeting she had in Michigan with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as well as Vice President JD Vance’s visit to the state, even as she cautioned that the administration’s policies could cause an economic collapse. However, while she voiced agreement with some of President Trump’s trade policies during a Wednesday speech from Washington,  she warned against his use of sweeping tariffs.  “These last few days have been tough for Michigan,” she said, noting the state’s automobile industry and international border with Canada. Of course that was before the PAUSE.

Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose
In his haste, Elon Musk is pushing out thousands of the government’s best minds.
As Trump, Musk and RFK Jr. do everything possible to defund and eliminate science and research, Canada, France and other nations are making offers to doctors and scientists. Might Canada attract scientist practitioners of AI-enhanced treatment that has reduced Parkinson’s symptoms for some people. Adaptive deep brain stimulation has virtually eliminated the most debilitating motor symptoms for some Parkinson’s patients and considerably improved their lives.
We wrote the above prior to hearing Wednesday morning CBC Radio The Current: Recruiting U.S. talent to Canada – A Toronto hospital network has a plan to recruit the best and brightest medical scientists from the U.S. and around the world, as funding cuts and layoffs put a chill on research south of the border. Matt Galloway discusses what Canada stands to gain with Kevin Smith, president and CEO of University Health Network; and Brad Wouters, UHN’s executive vice-president of science and research.

Along with recruitment of American professors, scientists, researchers, nurses and doctors, given the parlous state of Canadian military leadership, it might be wise consider recruiting some of the U.S. senior officers whom Trump is dismissing summarily. We could use some of that talent.
U.S. admiral at NATO fired, latest ouster in Trump military purge
Vice Adm. Shoshana Chatfield is one of at least nine senior military leaders — and the fourth woman — removed since Trump’s return to Washington.
The top Navy admiral had served at NATO headquarters in Brussels since 2023, after becoming the first woman to lead the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island.

Meanwhile, in Canada
There’s the federal election campaign to watch and the always disturbing antics of Quebec’s CAQ government which Andrew Caddell attacks in this week’s column A WRONG IS A WRONG IS A WRONG: NEW CAQ BILLS ATTACK MINORITIES
“The latest barrage of ethnocentrically based, crypto separatist legislation is a dagger to the heart of Canadian federalism. Having opposed the openly discriminatory bills 21 on secularism and 96 on language, Quebec’s minority linguistic and cultural communities are now being bombarded with extreme nationalism in bills 84 and 94.”

Six Quebec ridings to watch in the federal election Including: Mount Royal (MP Anthony Housefather); LaSalle—Émard—Verdun – formerly David Lametti’s riding (MP Louis-Philippe Sauvé, Bloc Québécois); Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie (MP Alexandre Boulerice, NDP); Beauport—Limoilou (MP Julie Vignola, Bloc Québécois); Beloeil—Chambly (MP Yves-François Blanchet, Bloc Québécois); and the new riding Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine–Listuguj (Liberal MP Diane Lebouthillier, who has represented the Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine)
Sept candidats dans Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj
In his column last week, Andrew Caddell explained the configurations of the new HUGE ridings
“The reorganization of the electoral map in 2023 eliminated one riding in eastern Quebec. The former Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia represented by Bloc Québécois MP Kristina Michaud has been absorbed, in part, into Rimouski–Matapédia. The riding where I live and ran as a Liberal in 2011 will absorb the Témiscouata region and become Côte-du-Sud–Rivière-du-Loup–Kataskomiq–Témiscouata. West of us on the river is now Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis. For simplicity, let’s call them Rimouski, Côte-du-Sud, and Bellechasse.
Each of these ridings is enormous. But declining populations and the increase of urban ridings around Montreal required a rejigging of the electoral map of Quebec’s 78 seats. The search for votes can be gruelling: in 2011, I travelled more than 5,000 kilometres in less than a month to visit the 60 or so municipalities in the riding. With Témiscouata added, there will be another 20 towns—and surrounding rural areas—to visit. The other ridings will add even more.”

Two emerging Canadian heroes
The Angry Canadian –How Doug Ford became Ontario’s chief enforcer
By Chris Jones
(The Atlantic) Since 2018, Doug Ford has been the unlikely premier of the province of Ontario, a close equivalent to the governor of a U.S. state, if more governors looked like longshoremen and gave out their personal-cellphone number to anyone who asked for it.
An old-school retail politician with more than 16 million constituents, Ford is the pugnacious, barrel-shaped leader of a near-trillion-dollar economy at an especially tender time: President Donald Trump has been threatening to bankrupt it, waging a trade war until Ontario and the rest of Canada capitulate and become “the 51st state.”
Mark Carney is hero #2, widely praised overseas and considered a potential leader in America’s post-globalization era. His cool demeanor and increasingly apparent ability to deal with naysayers -including Trump- is much admired. Will this translate into votes for a majority government?
Peter Frise directs our attention to Fareed’s Take: Trump’s tariffs and what they show
In this brief video, widely respected CNN journalist, Fareed Zakariah presents his views of the Trump tariffs in his Global Public Square (GPS) feature program.
Peter comments:
Interestingly, Mr. Zakaria comes to precisely the same conclusion as Australian defense analyst and YouTuber Perun – that America is now at risk of being frozen out of global trade going forward as more democratic nations simply go around the USA to trade with each other under entirely new trading blocs and agreements.
[QED: Spain’s PM Sanchez Calls on EU to Rethink Ties With China; see also Ian Bremmer: America just entered its post-globalization era below.]
I have seen similar views from British and other European trade experts on London-based Times Radio.
An interesting view from the UK, is that Canada’s PM Mark Carney is a potential leader of this new movement – and as a Canadian, I find that both exciting and a little sad as I do not wish to see the tens of millions of non-MAGA Americans become even more isolated than they already are.
Editor’s note —confirmation from Jeremy Kinsman, writing from Britain this week (see Long reads below)
“I am struck…by the extent to which Prime Minister Mark Carney has become the personification of hope for an end to this crisis, even an inspiration. British TV has repeatedly replayed Carney’s affirmation that Canada’s old relationship with the US is “over”, along with his vow to “fight, protect, and build.” I am told it is similarly replayed in Germany, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic.
Will Hutton, (Guardian columnist and president-designate of the Academy of Social Sciences), posted on X Monday: “The UK needs to integrate with the EU fast along with Canada to create a sane economic bloc and then launch a big reflationary package. And do it fast-really fast. The world needs leadership.”
In his Observer column on Sunday, Hutton wrote, “In this respect, Mark Carney, if confirmed as Canadian prime minister, is pivotal…Carney’s response to Trump’s menacing threats is to re-orient Canada around a new global trade order – in which Britain is well placed to help.”
As all good economists are wont to say, on the other hand, there is Matt Gurney‘s somewhat(?) lighthearted take on Mark Carney’s statement that “if the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will.”: Canada doesn’t lead –In almost every field of geopolitical endeavour, Canada has, at most, aspired to be a loyal and reliable mid-ranked contributor … at best.

Varia
Anyone headed to London?
Secrets, spy tools and a 110-year-old lemon are on show in an exhibition from Britain’s MI5
A desiccated 110-year-old lemon that played a key role in espionage history is one of the star attractions of a London exhibition drawn from the files of MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency.
Compact spy cameras, microdots in a talcum powder tin and a briefcase abandoned by fleeing Soviet spy Guy Burgess are also part of the show at Britain’s National Archives.
As Trump ignites tariff war, a US city is embracing Canadians with all its heart
An estimated 300,000 Canadians visit Palm Springs each year and Trump’s levies threaten tourism in the region
THE WOLVES ARE BACK — SORT OF
This week, a startup named Colossal Biosciences unveiled three genetically modified wolf pups engineered with 20 edited genes from the extinct Canis dirus — better known as the dire wolf.
They’re not quite dire wolves. But they are a glimpse into a biotech future where extinction is optional, ethics are negotiable, and nothing is ever really dead — just waiting for a venture capitalist
So while biotech millionaires re-imagine the Ice Age for clicks and clout, the wolves we already have are being hunted to death.
But sure. Let’s bring back dire wolves.
Because nothing says “conservation” like resurrecting creatures we helped destroy… while failing to protect the ones still hanging on.

Long reads/listens
Netanyahu-Trump meeting reveals unexpected gaps on key issues
Netanyahu appeared to leave Monday’s meeting largely empty-handed — a stark contrast with his triumphant visit two months ago. During an hourlong Oval Office appearance, Trump appeared to slap down, contradict or complicate each of Netanyahu’s policy prerogatives.

Peter Frise follows the mysterious (cannot find any bio) Australian economist, Perun
The New U.S. Tariffs – Weird Formulas, Risks, & The Coming Trade War
For decades the U.S. has been a leading force in building the global free trade system. Today, we discuss its effort to reshape it using tariffs and some very wonky math and what that move might mean for the world (For Canada-focused discussion, start at 48.26).

How to awaken Canada’s sleeping economic giant
Recent interviews with industry leaders and experts point toward 10 areas where actionable strategies are needed – and toward the sorts of policy actions that may be needed

Timothy Snyder Has Seen Tyrants Like Trump Before
The historian, On Tyranny author and recent Toronto transplant has studied dictators for decades. Even he doesn’t know what comes next.

Meltdown: The World Scrambles to Cope with Trump’s Torrent of Chaos
Jeremy Kinsman
(Policy) Leaders from the democratic and free-market world which the US had led for 80 years, hesitate still to denounce Trump personally in public. But their outrage at reckless US pseudo-economic rationales suggests dark evaluations of the psychology behind the chaos. The Economist captured the consensus view that “almost everything he said — on history, economics, and the technicalities of trade” was “utterly deluded,” “drivel,” and “flat-out nonsense.”
Trump-world’s measure of success appears to be all the American failure corruption can buy, with national interest subjugated to an oligarchy bent on brutality, personal profiteering and the daily deployment of a friendly-fire presidency fronted by a firehose of ludicrous propaganda.

Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose
The administration’s approach to cost-cutting, led by Elon Musk, has targeted not only middle managers and functionaries but also thousands of the government’s best minds, including recognized authorities in various disciplines.

Ian Bremmer: America just entered its post-globalization era
Decoupling by design
The conclusion is inescapable: The president is committed to walling America off from the world in order to reduce bilateral trade deficits dramatically while using tariff revenue to fund his tax cuts and spending plans.