Wednesday Night #2294

Every aspect of the news this week is tinged with the golden glow of the US-Israel war on Iran, which has now spread to embrace or affect countries as distant as Cyprus and Sri Lanka. Alliances are shifting, markets are volatile, economies are suffering, geopolitical issues are thriving in neglect.

The Iran War
There is little or no disagreement that we are happy to see the Ayatollahs gone and wish fervently for a profound regime change. The disagreement comes with whether the war as conceived and executed by the U.S. and Israel IS the best way of ensuring an outcome that is good for the people of Iran, good for the Middle East and, thus, good for the world. Many experts agree that air power alone is not an effective method of bringing about regime change (‘Air power alone is not going to bring down a regime’, says General David Petraeus) and, as Bob Rae states in his latest piece for Policy (See Long reads), “An air bombing war such as this always mean missed targets and innocent lives lost.”
C Uday Bhaskar writes Ayatollah Khamenei is dead which will prolong the conflict
Idea of martyrdom is a central pillar of the Iranian regime’s worldview. That Khamenei did not flee and risked assassination could create a ‘blood debt’ legacy among rival Iranian factions and also give hardliners the upper hand

Is this really the desired outcome?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Son Emerges as Leading Choice to Be His Successor
If Mojtaba Khamenei is chosen by Iran’s senior clerics, it may signal a victory for hard-liners, an analyst said.
Who is Mojtaba Khamenei, a contender for Iran’s leadership amid war?
Khamenei has never run for office or been subjected to a public vote, but has for decades been a highly influential figure in the inner circle of the supreme leader, cultivating deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

From Iran to Venezuela, Here Are the Countries Trump Has Ordered Strikes On in His Second Term
President Donald Trump ran in 2024 on a campaign that swore to avoid dragging the U.S. into foreign wars, instead focusing on home prosperity. Earlier this year, the White House referred to him as the “President of Peace.”
But that title is being scrutinized following the U.S. decision to strike Iran over the weekend.
We cannot help but consider that the war serves as a diversion from other unpleasant events in the Trumpian world (Epstein; plunging popularity; failure to solve Putin’s Russia- Ukraine war; setback on tariff policy from SCOTUS; wobbly outlook for midterms; possible designs on Cuba …) even as Trump appears oblivious and continues to make outrageous statements while serving as Grifter-in-Chief

Global issues

Pakistan Declares ‘Open War’ With Afghanistan After Clashes

South Sudan risks return to full-blown civil war as violence escalates
At least 169 killed in raid near Sudan border as clashes between government and opposition forces intensify

Putin accuses Ukraine of attacking gas tanker that exploded and sank off Libya
The Arctic Metagaz burst into flames before sinking after what the Russian president described as a terrorist attack

Trump raises the possibility of a ‘friendly takeover of Cuba’ coming out of talks with Havana

North Korea warns it could destroy South if threatened, but leaves door open for U.S. dialogue

Canada
Prime Minister Carney has been the target of some criticism because of his statements in support of the U.S. war on Iran, although he has walked back the most uncompromising support of the U.S. in his first statement. Tasha Kheiriddin (see Long reads) is also critical of his realpolitik approach to new international agreements to replace the reliance on the now unreliable U.S. She notes in particular -with some disapproval- his recent visit to India and the cordial atmosphere in which a number of initiatives  have been agreed. (Carney Meets Modi in New Delhi, Marking New Chapter in Ties)
All is not doom and gloom -at least not for Canadian and Quebec partisans of the Liberal persuasion.
Liberals open up lead: LPC 44, CPC 33, NDP 11. Preferred PM: Carney 56, Poilievre 22.
The latest survey from Nik Nanos reveals Numbers are ramping up for Carney and Liberals. Carney leads Poilievre by 34 percentage points and the Liberals have now opened up an 11-point advantage over the Conservatives.
While in Quebec:
Support for sovereignty nosedives; Quebec Liberals and PQ in dead heat: poll
Opposition to Quebec independence stands at 71 per cent, the highest level since the sovereignty referendum in 1995.
The Léger online survey, conducted for the Québecor media group, found that the PQ and Liberals are virtually tied for overall voter support, polling 31 and 30 per cent respectively. The findings suggest a one-point drop in support for the PQ since January, while support for the Quebec Liberals, who saw Charles Milliard acclaimed as their leader in mid-February, increased by four points.

Coming events at the Atwater Library
TOMORROW (THURSDAY, March 5) – 12:30 to 1:30 pm
Atwater Library’s Adair Auditorium (Floor 1 by elevator)
PHOTOGRAPHER LIDA MOSER’S PORTRAYAL of QUEBEC in 1950
IN PERSON and BY ZOOM (Hybrid)
For the Atwater Library Lunchtime Series, celebrated filmmaker Joyce Borenstein (and our Haddon Hall neighbour) presents her animated documentary Lida Moser Photographer: Odyssey in Black and White.
The film is about New York photographer Lida Moser’s 1950 travels around Quebec and the 1,000+ photographs she took of people and communities.
Click here to see the film trailer on Vimeo.
Should you like to attend virtually, we’ll email you the Zoom link tomorrow morning at 8:00 – an email from the Atwater Library Lunchtime Series account. You also have the option of attending in person. Everyone is welcome and admission is free.
AND
Terry Mosher (Aislin) is launching his new book on the 1976 Montréal Olympics at the Atwater Library – in the Adair Auditorium —
this Saturday afternoon (March 7) from 2:00 to 5:00.
At 3:00 Michael Goldbloom and other luminaries are speaking. Coffee and water will be served.
Terry will be selling and inscribing books.
There are two versions of this book – a hardcover signed and numbered collector’s edition for $100 and a trade softcover edition for $50.
Proceeds will be donated to the Montreal Children’s Hospital.

Varia
Global sea levels have been underestimated due to poor modelling, research suggests
Analysis shows average levels are 30cm higher than thought, and up to 150cm in south-east Asia and Indo-Pacific
Sea levels around the world have been underestimated due to inaccurate modelling, with research suggesting ocean levels are far higher than previously understood.
The finding could significantly affect assessments of the future impacts of global heating and the effects on coastal settlements.
Melania Trump Promotes ‘Peace Through Education’ at U.N. as War With Iran Expands
(NYT) …the first lady, presided over a meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday [2 March] and delivered a speech advocating “peace through education” amid President Trump’s expansive war with Iran and cuts to U.S. education funding.

Long reads
Bob Rae: Trump’s Consequential War
In explaining the Trump doctrine of military intervention, [Secretary of War Pete Hegseth] said: “America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history…. No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don’t waste time or lives.”

The War on Iran and the War on Anthropic
Daron Acemoglu
US President Donald Trump, who came to power promising no new foreign military entanglements, especially in the Middle East, has now launched a potentially riskier one than the Iraq War a generation ago, and with even flimsier justification. But his use of state power to crush a private company may have even more far-reaching effects.

Tasha Kheiriddin: Pragmatism or principles? That’s the predicament for Carney
When it comes to trade and foreign affairs, we now live in the era of “pick your poison.”
RIP Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, we hardly knew you.
As Prime Minister Mark Carney alights in Australia this week, fresh from a trade mission to India, the basic premise of the strategy — “to seize opportunities in the national interest of Canadians, while defending the values they hold dear” — has been junked in favour of realpolitik: doing business with countries other than the United States, even if their values don’t quite align with ours.

Global Leaders Brace for the Fallout From a Fast Metastasizing War
Higher energy prices, political instability and a potential new wave of refugees: The escalating regional conflict in the Middle East could have far-reaching effects.