Wednesday Night #2313

The China-Philippines South China Sea dispute
Preoccupied with the deadly flip-flops of Trump’s policies vis à vis Iran, NATO and Ukraine, we have neglected developments in the China South Sea  and thus overlooked the 10th anniversary of the 12 July 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that China has no legal basis for claiming much of the South China Sea, and had aggravated the regional dispute with its land reclamation and construction of artificial islands that destroyed coral reefs and the natural condition of the disputed areas. China refuses to acknowledge the ruling and the vast area remains in dispute.
Thanks to Cleo Paskal for reminding us The Indo-Pacific didn’t suddenly become important.
For more than a century, American leaders have understood that prosperity, trade, and security in North America are deeply tied to stability across the Pacific. …why concerns about trade routes, maritime security, and strategic access in the Western Pacific stretch back to the Spanish-American War. Those same realities continue to shape today’s geopolitical landscape. As tensions rise around Taiwan, the South China Sea, and critical supply chains, understanding this history may be more important than ever. (See Long reads/videos)

Multilateralism
The NATO Summit is over and Trump managed to not disrupt.
Foreign Policy declares “The recent NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, has been hailed as a resounding success. For one thing, European leaders managed to avoid a blow-up from U.S. President Donald Trump by assiduously presenting him with tributes: namely, evidence of their increased military spending. …
The Ankara communique was undoubtedly milquetoast, but it did contain all the correct platitudes and buzzwords, from the allies’ “ironclad commitment to [their] collective defense under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty” to their dedication to a “360-degree approach to deterrence and defense.”
However, it’s notable that at the end of the communique, NATO leaders committed to future meetings but did not set a date for a meeting next summer. That reflects the increasingly common wisdom that NATO summits in the Trump era present little more than an opportunity for strife and presidential blow-ups from the U.S. contingent.
See Long reads: NATO Is Splitting in Two

US-Iran Gulf War III
It is impossible to formulate a coherent timely comment before the situation changes once again.
As of late afternoon (ET) Wednesday The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and intensified its airstrike campaign Wednesday in retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The American strikes hit an Iranian army barracks, killed at least seven troops and wounded hundreds of people across the country, Iranian officials said. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East — and renewed threats to the waterway crucial to global energy supplies — have shredded the interim deal to end the conflict and the region could tip back into all-out war.
The most accurate summary is from the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour Chaos and confusion bring US no closer to resolution on strait of Hormuz
Five months of U-turns and false boasts leave Donald Trump in worse position than when he started (See Long reads)
Meanwhile,  see Long reads/videos for What’s Going on With Shipping: The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, but the current crisis is doing more than just disrupting routes—it’s reshaping the global financial landscape for energy transport.

Wall Street is worried about the $3 trillion rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia
The US-Israel war with Iran has dominated headlines this year. Behind closed doors, however, conversations with more than a dozen Wall Street bankers and private equity executives reveal an additional concern — one that has barely registered in public debate but has the potential to upend global investment flows.
The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two biggest Gulf economies and among the world’s deepest pools of capital, has prompted executives to work on contingency plans to counter any fallout if things get significantly worse. From banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to investment firms including BlackRock, Brookfield and KKR, the trajectory of the relationship is especially crucial.

Israel
Netanyahu Plans US Visit Saturday, Seeks Meeting with Trump
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to travel to the US to seek a meeting with President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu also plans to attend the funeral for Senator Lindsey Graham, who was an outspoken supporter of Israel.
The expected US visit comes at a pivotal moment in the war in Iran, where an interim peace deal between Tehran and Washington has all but collapsed.
Almost Half of House Democrats Vote to End Aid to Israel
The measure failed, but the level of support among Democrats exposed a stark shift in the party away from backing the Jewish state.
We are shedding no tears.
With death of Lindsey Graham, Israel loses key backer as its isolation deepens
The senator represented a foreign policy consensus on U.S. support for Israel that has begun to collapse under President Donald Trump.
In recent years, when Sen. Lindsey Graham was not in Washington or back home in South Carolina, he could often be found in Israel.

Canada-US relations
We are now informed that the Gordie Howe Bridge will open on the 27th with the support of the U.S. government. But questions remain about the agreement to finally open the bridge…the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority, the Crown corporation that oversees the new crossing, “will also work collaboratively with the government of the United States on toll-rate adjustments, seeking concurrence for certain non-market related toll changes.”
Carney defends US cut of Gordie Howe Bridge profits, says Canada gets repaid first
Prime Minister Mark Carney is now defending a revised Canada-U.S. arrangement that gives Washington access to a share of future operating profits. His argument is narrow but important: Canada is not splitting toll revenue before recovering its costs. The money, he says, flows first toward repayment and debt servicing, with only remaining profits subject to sharing for a limited period. That distinction may decide whether the deal is seen as a practical compromise or a costly political surrender.
See Long reads for ‘Coin of the Realm’: CUSMA, the Gordie Howe Bridge, and the End of Bilateral Trust

We can’t take our water for granted
While federalism has worked in protecting provincial autonomy, it is a barrier to ensuring the secure supply of one of the building blocks of life.
A rarely invoked issue inherent in the Canada-US relationship is Clean Water. Andrew Caddell devotes this week’s column to the need for Canada to address the fact that Canada is the only G7 country without national drinking water regulations. “Everyone else has federal standards. We have a patchwork of weak provincial guidelines and municipalities are largely left to muddle through alone.” Calling clean water a “fundamental human right (which) transcends politics, geography, and ideology,” in an open letter the [National Council of Women of Canada (NCWC), which has launched a national campaign to raise awareness about our water supply] calls on the federal government to “Work with provinces, territories, Indigenous governments, municipalities, and public health authorities to strengthen enforceable drinking-water protections across Canada, using the appropriate legislative and regulatory tools available to each order of government.”
NB It is worth noting that the tone of some of The Hill Times opinion pieces in the current issue is growing increasingly critical of the Government, including ‘Buyer’s remorse’ building over Carney’s ‘transactionalist’ approach to global affairs, says ex-Grit foreign minister Axworthy and ‘You’re losing this set of voices’: Liberals kill Trudeau-era youth climate council amid spending cuts – Two years after their initial applications, the second batch of members of the Environment and Climate Change Youth Council were informed the body was being dissolved before ever formally starting their work.

Varia
Can AI help solve global crises? Live from the AI for Good Global Summit 2026
Recorded at the 2026 AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva, this special Global Stage conversation brings together leaders from the United Nations, Microsoft, and the scientific community to examine how AI can help tackle some of the world’s biggest challenges, from disaster preparedness and climate resilience to humanitarian response and sustainable development.
… Together, the panel explores the growing gap between countries that can fully harness AI and those still lacking the infrastructure, connectivity, and data needed to benefit from it. They discuss why expanding access must go hand in hand with investing in digital skills, trusted governance, and stronger public-private partnerships.
The conversation also highlights AI’s real-world potential to improve weather forecasting, strengthen early warning systems, accelerate disaster response, and support humanitarian operations, while also underscoring that technology alone cannot solve global challenges without sustained investment in data, local capacity, and international cooperation.

Long reads/videos
The Indo-Pacific: Why NATO And The World Should Care
The Indo-Pacific is rapidly emerging as the most consequential strategic region of the 21st century.
In this episode of Security Disruptors, host Stuart McNish and co-host Calvin Chrustie are joined by leading geopolitical and security experts Cleo Paskal, Stephen Nagy, and Richard Ivey to examine the growing security, economic, and geopolitical challenges shaping the Indo-Pacific region.
As global attention remains focused on Russia and Ukraine, many strategic and intelligence assessments increasingly identify the Indo-Pacific as the primary theatre that will define future economic security, technological competition, maritime stability, and geopolitical influence.

NATO Is Splitting in Two
Mark Carney and Mark Rutte offer competing visions for the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Patrick Wintour:  Chaos and confusion bring US no closer to resolution on strait of Hormuz
Five months of U-turns and false boasts leave Donald Trump in worse position than when he started
The Hormuz Effect: Tanker Stocks, Supertankers, and the 2026 Crisis (YouTube)
What’s Going on With Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, but the current crisis is doing more than just disrupting routes—it’s reshaping the global financial landscape for energy transport

Unpacking Ankara: Can the New ‘Hour of Europe’ Forestall a New Age of War?”
Jeremy Kinsman

‘Coin of the Realm’: CUSMA, the Gordie Howe Bridge, and the End of Bilateral Trust
Colin Robertson
… The bridge was finished. The agreements had been negotiated. The contracts had been signed.
Then Donald Trump threatened to stop it from opening unless Canada gave the United States more.
Canada ultimately accepted changes to future toll revenues and governance to secure a bridge opening that should have happened months ago. Mr. Trump manufactured a crisis over an existing agreement, extracted additional concessions and then declared victory.