Wednesday Night #2325

‘Tis the season to be voting
Quebec election 2026
Our friends around the world must surely have heard the collective sigh of relief when the results of the Monday’s election were confirmed after a number of close races kept us glued to whichever preferred news source. The result was likely the best possible under the circumstances. The PQ is hobbled by its status as a minority government whose mandate comes from just 28 per cent of the vote, the lowest vote share for any government in Quebec’s history. The Liberals (40 seats) and Conservatives (with 19 seats they obtain official party status in the Quebec legislature and could hold the balance of power) can be proud of their success in the face of gloomy predictions from the pundits. It is good that both leaders won their seats. A special shout-out to Désirée McGraw who campaigned tirelessly for the Leader and other PLQ candidates in l’Estrie (Eastern Townships) in addition to her own campaign in NDG/Montreal West. The CAQ’s wipeout was a surprise to most and we cannot help feeling a bit sorry for Christine Fréchette, though she will likely land on her feet in the private sector. Finally, we applaud Mark Carney’s swift and gracious outreach to PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, setting the tone for future dealings.
Andrew Caddell has a somewhat grimmer view of the future of Fed-Prov relations under the PQ. He writes in the Hill Times The PQ will make life difficult for Canada – In the coming years as premier, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will likely blame every Quebec problem on Ottawa. No doubt true, but we believe that PSPP could well be constrained by the need to govern Quebec.

On a global scale, the outcome of Brazil‘s presidential elections is more worrisome. Following the neck-and-neck result of Sunday’s election, there is to be  an October 25 run-off. Writing in The Guardian, Steve Bloomfield underlines that Trump wants control of South America. If Bolsonaro Jr wins in Brazil, that could become a reality. And the Bolsonaro family could put the Trump’s to shame – former president Bolsonaro is in jail…

Israel, Palestine, Gaza
October 7 2023 has become another date, like 9/11 that is imprinted indelibly in our memories. Around the world,  commemorations were held on Wednesday  for the 1,209 people  killed in the horrific attack by Hamas on kibbutzim, border towns, military bases and a music festival, but what of the thousands of (mostly) Gazans killed in the aftermath? Despite several false starts, there is no solution to the “Palestinian problem”.  The dire situation in Gaza is at a  stand-off, while attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank are ever more vicious, and the Middle East is in turmoil thanks to the war on Iran initiated by Trump and Netanyahu.  As the latter  clings to power with support from the extreme right, we will certainly see no improvement before the 27 October elections.
Three years after 10/7, Israel looks backward and forward (See Long reads)
In 2026, Israel, Gaza, and the world are still grappling with the far-reaching effects of October 7th—as Israel readies to go to the polls on October 27th, with Netanyahu and his right-wing party Likud facing off against centrist party Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces. … As Israel readies to go to the polls later this month, the voters will ultimately render a verdict over whether Netanyahu was at fault for the failures that allowed 10/7 to happen—and a verdict over his prosecution of the war in Gaza, which has reshaped geopolitics in the Middle East and beyond. With polls showing a neck-and-neck race between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, that verdict is likely to be split, failing to resolve the fundamental divides in Israel’s self-identity and its global perception three years after the worst terrorist attack in the nation’s history.

U.S. Government & Governance
Concern for the elections above pales in comparison to our concern for the US Midterms on Tuesday, 3 November. At this stage, the outlook is promising. A Democratic majority in the House is virtually assured and there is an ever-stronger possibility of a majority in the Senate. However, c/would Democratic control of Congress start to turn things around? Trump’s  flouting of laws and conventions has been unstoppable – will he be cowed (hard to imagine)? He has embarked on a campaign blitz even as some Republican candidates are disavowing him. Trump sets off on midterm blitz – are his trademark rallies a liability for Republicans?  Rallies have been mainstay of president’s brand but even some in his own party fear voters are sick of the sight of him.
A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left
(Cook Political Report) Four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate map is shifting further in Democrats’ favor — and with it, their odds of winning back the majority.
While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state, President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living.
At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many. As such, we are revising our estimate of potential pickups to two to six seats for Democrats — squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net for a majority.
And we are moving three Senate ratings, all in Democrats’ direction: Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.
Republicans are still hopeful about picking up a seat in Michigan and holding one in Maine, which could limit Democrats’ gains and narrowly protect the GOP’s majority. But the momentum nationally remains against

United Nations
The ‘race’ for the post of Secretary-general of the UN is more discreet than  national elections, but important for the future of the organization and must be decided by consensus before January 1. At present, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica leads the pack, but it is worth considering What happens if the UN cannot agree on Antonio Guterres’s successor?

Middle East 
As both the US and Israel are absorbed in domestic political maters, the situation in the Middle East is not improving.
Saudi-Backed Yemeni Government Declares War Against Houthis
More than 200 U.S. intelligence and military analysts are in Saudi Arabia helping it provide assistance to its Yemeni allies, current and former U.S. officials say.
The new operation threatens to open a new front in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and further entangle the United States in the widening regional conflict that it began more than seven months ago.

AI or ‘Super’ Intelligence
Trump has finally yielded -somewhat- to the many voices calling for regulation of AI – and has launched ‘Super Intelligence Force’ after calls for AI slowdown – Leaders from the intelligence community, the Pentagon, the Federal Trade Commission and the Office of Personnel Management will serve on the task force.
He’s the Most Powerful Engineer on Earth. Here’s Why He Thinks A.I. Is Going Great. (see Long reads)
In the aftermath of this summer’s rogue A.I. attacks, Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, has emerged as a leading skeptic of the danger this technology poses

Brett House suggests How to get Canada’s pension funds to invest more in startups
The recent Canada Investment Summit mobilized $500-billion in new capital, according to the federal government, demonstrating that the world is paying attention to the country, particularly our major infrastructure and resource projects.
Canada now needs to put the same spotlight on the financing of its early-stage companies.
Canada’s major public pension funds, the Maple Eight, manage $2.6-trillion in assets, but just a fraction of these finance the country’s venture and growth companies, the engines of innovation and high-value job creation. …

Varia
Utterly delightful
Comedy wildlife photography award finalists 2026 – in pictures
A caiman wearing a wig, two brown bears laughing and a leopard doing a handstand feature in the selection of finalists from this year’s Nikon Comedy Wildlife awards. More at Nikon Comedy Wildlife Awards
Panda diplomacy: all the countries currently hosting China’s beloved ambassadors (See Long reads)
[Ping Ping and Fu Shuang] Two giant pandas arrived in the US following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, continuing a decades-old tradition in which the beloved fuzzy ambassadors have become symbols of China’s ties with countries around the world.
Zoo Atlanta announced the arrival of giant pandas Ping Ping and Fu Shuang on Sunday, saying it was “overjoyed” to welcome the pair after the zoo’s previous 25-year partnership with China ended in 2024.
Xi said during his US visit that the pandas would be sent as an “envoy of friendship” between the Chinese and American people.

Long reads/videos
Ian Bremmer: Three years after 10/7, Israel looks backward and forward

If you have not already discovered it, we strongly recommend Bob Rae’s substack. His reflections are always thought provoking and he frequently links to (or “restacks”) other pundits like Anne Applebaum (Canada’s Counter-Revolution ) and Paul Krugman (The Midterms!).

Panda diplomacy: all the countries currently hosting China’s beloved ambassadors (See Long reads)
The arrival of Ping Ping and Fu Shuang in the US following the Xi-Trump summit in Washington continues a Chinese diplomatic tradition

Trump’s opponents are planning efforts to reverse his changes to presidency
As the midterms approach, Democrats are working to ensure his aggressive approach to executive power doesn’t outlast him.

He’s the Most Powerful Engineer on Earth. Here’s Why He Thinks A.I. Is Going Great.
At the recent White House tech summit, Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia, sat in the chair next to President Trump — his literal right-hand man. Later that day, Mr. Huang used the term “super intelligence,” just as the president prefers. In the aftermath of this summer’s rogue A.I. attacks, Mr. Huang has emerged as a leading skeptic of the danger this technology poses. As his biographer, I understand why he dismisses the risk. I also worry that he’s not seeing the whole picture.