Wednesday Night #2295

IRAN, IRAN, ISRAEL, TRUMP and horrible Hegseth– is there any other news?
Most headlines are about the US effort and Iran’s counter attacks, Strait of Hormuz, etc.
Israel, while still attacking Iran, seems to be concentrating on Lebanon and Hezbollah
On Wednesday the UN Security Council passed a resolution condemning Iran for strikes on Persian Gulf states.
A second resolution calling for a halt to all military action in the Middle East, authored by Russia, failed to pass.

Trump’s Iran war messaging is all over the map
Ten days after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, President Trump’s endgame is a murky, ever-moving target.
The big picture: Across interviews, press conferences and social media, Trump floated and erased timelines, predicted the war’s end or promised new escalation, and argued he must choose Iran’s new leader while the administration denies regime change is the goal. …

Three merchant ships struck as tensions rise in Hormuz strait amid Iran war
Crew of Thai-registered bulk carrier forced to flee fire, as US says it has destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels
Meanwhile, Iran escalates attacks on infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf
Iranian officials warn of ‘war of attrition’ and global economic chaos as energy supplies are throttled

It is always appreciated when Wednesday Nighters offer insights to particular aspects of an issue.
Peter Frise has actively pursued the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint, and the effect on world-wide economies. He has introduced us to host Sal Mercogliano and What’s Going On with Shipping whose latest video explores
Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade (See Long reads/viewings below)
Also, see President Trump Tells Tankers Show Some Guts!

A pertinent footnote to last Wednesday’s brief discussion of the role of the Kurds
Can the Kurds trust the U.S.?
While many global leaders have concerns about America’s reliability in light of President Donald Trump’s transactional foreign policy approach and penchant for unilateralism, the Kurds have history with the United States that makes them especially wary.

The results of the Nepal election are in: He Raps, He Rants, He Promises Change. Meet Nepal’s Presumptive New Leader.
Balendra Shah’s party won a landslide in the election that followed Nepal’s Gen Z revolution. His style is pugnacious.
A socially conscious rapper, Mr. Shah has prided himself in not being bound to Nepal’s political establishment. Four years ago, he successfully ran as an independent for mayor of Kathmandu, the nation’s capital. He cultivated an image of a politician who got things done — tackling waste management, improving education and delivering health care — precisely because he wasn’t beholden to the ossified hierarchy of party politics.

Another challenge for the Board of Peace?
Sudan’s devastating war rages on as regional rivalries deepen
Yet the Iran crisis may push Gulf rivals to set aside their differences and revive stalled diplomacy on Sudan.
The US remains at the centre of the push to end the war, despite ongoing questions about whether the Trump administration is committed to seeing those efforts through. Those questions are likely to grow amid the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, which has retaliated by also striking states across the Gulf.

Varia
Poetic Justice
Ukraine to teach Gulf states the secret to countering Iran-designed drones
Moscow has dramatically scaled-up the production and sophistication of its drones, based on Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Tehran has launched at Israel and Gulf states over the last week.
That has forced Ukraine to develop cheap and versatile defence systems that allow it to down hundreds of drones in a single barrage — experience Kyiv says is unmatched anywhere in the world.
Ukraine sends drone experts to three countries in Middle East, Zelenskiy says
Gulf states seeking Ukraine’s expertise in downing drones
Zelenskiy says in return Ukraine needs air defence missiles
Chrystia Freeland on Iran, Ukraine, and Global Power Shifts  (video)
Amanpour and Company As the world reacts to the spiraling situation in the Middle East, Chrystia Freeland says it is part of the wider collapse of international rules-based order.
Finnish couple win barrel of ale in UK’s annual ‘wife-carrying’ contest
Wives and girlfriends clung on for dear life as their partners carried them up and down a hillside for the UK Wife Carrying Race, one of the country’s quirkiest annual sports events.

Experts Holds News Conference on Arctic Security and China –
Representatives from the Montreal Institute for Global Security (MIGS) and the China Strategic Risks Institute held a news conference on Parliament Hill to discuss a new report on Closing Strategic Gaps in the Face of China’s Expanding Influence in the Canadian Arctic.
Among the press conference participants: MIGS’ Kyle Matthews (just back from a Brazilian holiday) and Alex Dalziel (senior fellow)…
Coincidentally, or not, having added Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to the Liberal fold, our peripatetic PM Carney heads to Norway on Friday to observe the Norwegian-led NATO Cold Response exercise above the Arctic Circle.
The odds of Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend checks are ‘now effectively zero,’ expert says
“Even if the tariffs challenged by the Supreme Court’s decision are replaced by other trade taxes on Americans, the widening federal deficit should make everyone skeptical that these checks will ever be in the mail,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.
A Thriving Francophonie in the Yukon is the topic of Andrew Caddell‘s column this week. “With a growing population of francophones, the 2021 census found 6,000 people (out of 47,000) who speak French, half of whom speak it at home.”
Our much-missed Iranian economists (now based in the US) write “We’re doing well, and the family is OK. We go through various thoughts and feelings every day. We just hope this is finally the end of the Islamic regime, but we’re also worried about what comes next. We had a day of celebration when Khamanei was killed. It was surreal. And the next day it felt as though he had been gone forever…”
What is Beryl up to?
Is he planning on running for the CAQ Leadership?
Beryl Wajsman: François Legault, Canada’s defender of western values
Quebec’s premier set an example for Ottawa to mirror
History will not judge governments solely by quarterly economic data, polling swings or even administrative missteps. It judges them by whether they reshaped the moral and civic architecture of society. By that standard, the legacy of Quebec Premier François Legault will endure long after today’s headlines fade.
Legault’s government anchored itself in a defining principle: that Quebec is a lay, secular democracy whose public institutions must reflect universal civic values rather than religious particularism or submission to theocratic extremism. A critical principle at a time when the West is menaced by Islamism.

Two important anniversaries
From 1776 to 2026: Adam Smith’s lessons for the global economy
‘Wealth of Nations’ marked its 250th anniversary on March 9
Debate over legacy of Smith’s ideas continues
But his ideas on trade, wealth, labour still resonate
(Reuters) – Tax the rich. Trash the tariffs. End monopolies.
Such are the rallying calls of many of today’s most heated economic debates. They could also come straight from the pen of revered economist Adam Smith, hailed by some as the “father of capitalism” and others as an early progressive.
And on March 10, Bell’s first phone call made history 150 years ago in Boston
…the world’s first telephone call — or, more specifically, the first time a discernible human voice traveled over wire from one person to another — occurred on March 10, 1876.

Long reads/viewings
Timothy Snyder has joined Heather Cox Richardson, Jeremy Kinsman, David Frum, Paul Krugman, et al. in the ranks of my must-read, must-watch smart people. Janice Stein has been there for some time.
Thinking Live on Iran with Janice Stein – How we got here, and where we might be going (video)

Hormuz Disruptions, US Navy Escort Plans (or lack of) and Impact on Global Trade (video)
And
President Trump Tells Tankers Show Some Guts! (video)

Jeremy Kinsman: Mark Carney’s Frequent Flying: Peripatetic with a Purpose
(Policy) In his first year as prime minister, Mark Carney has racked up more frequent flyer miles outside of Canada than his two predecessors. More significantly, this prime minister’s travel is propelled by a comprehensive strategic purpose, prompted by Canada’s need to diversify away from its over-dependence on our U.S. neighbour, whose government under Donald Trump has become erratic, predatory, and even existentially threatening.

Why Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Is Still Useful
For more than a decade, he has been known more as a regime opponent than as a supporter.

The False Promise of Regime Change
Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East
Philip H. Gordon
October 7, 2020 – as valid today as six years ago